WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump’s blanket tariffs caused concern among Maryland’s agricultural industry when first announced. Many feared the repercussions of a trade war would land on farmers, as happened in 2018. But while many remain concerned about the future impact of tariffs, some in the industry say their operations have so far avoided a financial sting.
“At this point, I don’t think we see an impact, positive or negative,” David Burrier told The Baltimore Sun.
The Cold War raged when Burrier harvested his first crop. President Gerald Ford lived in the White House. And the Colts played in Baltimore. Since then, the Frederick County farmer sowed and reaped while the world and the agriculture industry changed around him. He experienced droughts and equipment failures, poor yields and bumper crops.
As Burrier, 72, approaches his 50th harvest, he’s caught up in a circumstance that extends beyond the borders of his 1,000-acre farm. The oscillations of Trump’s global trade war have the potential to impact every industry. Agriculture is among the most essential.
Yet as other industries begin to feel the pinch of blanket tariffs, with increased prices on clothing and manufactured goods, Burrier said his farm has so far escaped negative consequences. He’s not the only one.
‘I haven’t seen it in my costs yet’
Hallie Butler-Van Horn of Butler Orchard in Montgomery County handles the market side of her family’s farm. She’s responsible for some of the products essential to their operation that are less associated with the front end of expenses, from glass jars for fresh jam to decorations to dot the market.
“So far, I haven’t been impacted too much with what I’m buying. My sellers, my reps, they keep me in constant communication with what’s going on,” Butler-Van Horn, 40, said. “A lot of them are able to forgo the costs, or, due to Covid, a lot of them actually moved stateside with their production.”
Because Butler Orchard primarily obtains goods through local and domestic distributors, it’s somewhat insulated from the direct impact of tariffs. And while tariffs typically influence entire markets, with price increases often passed from businesses to the consumers, Butler-Van Horn hasn’t experienced that in her bottom line.
“I don’t know how that trickle-down effect is affecting them yet, but I haven’t seen it in my costs yet,” Butler-Van Horn said.
Several of the companies she works with had mentioned plans to move production to U.S. factories, she added.
“I don’t know what’ll happen in July or August as things progress, but so far the tariffs have not really impacted the farm market and the goods and the dry goods and jams and jellies and things like that that we carry,” Butler-Van Horn said.
‘We’ve definitely seen an impact’
Others working within the industry said they’ve begun to see the ripples of the tariffs. But they’ve been less than what was expected after Trump’s Liberation Day announcement.
“We’ve definitely seen an impact in the industry,” Richard O’Hara, general manager of the Frederick County Co-op, said. “Not nearly as heavy of an impact as what it seems like we see on TV. But it is an impact — specific to grains and products that we have to bring in from other countries.”
Oats, plus alfalfa and sunflower products, have seen price increases between 1 and 2 percent at the co-op. It’s a minimal increase; the Canadian companies that export the products haven’t transferred the cost of the tariff to their American clients.
“Nothing that has slowed anybody down in their purchasing,” O’Hara, 47, said. His suppliers “are happy to do that, of course, to maintain our business.”
AG secretary: ‘It’s hard to plan for’
The overall impact of tariffs on the price of agricultural commodities is difficult to calculate. It’s a volatile market that frequently fluctuates, influenced both by domestic and global events that affect supply and demand — such as the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge, which caused the price of fertilizer to jump when ships couldn’t reach the port.
Agriculture is an essential slice of Maryland’s economy. Roughly 12,600 farms operate in the state, exporting $795 million in products in 2023.
Not everyone in the industry has been as unscathed by the tariffs. Maryland Secretary of Agriculture Kevin Atticks said he’s spoken with many who are dealing with price increases on inputs, like fertilizer, and equipment. But the impact remains hard to quantify.
“It’s hard to point directly to which specific tariff, which specific country is causing the price increases,” Atticks told The Sun. “If you zoom out, it’s more just the ecosystem related to international trade has been jolted.”
Atticks said some farmers have seen orders dropped because of the prospect of tariffs. Even when tariffs aren’t implemented, or implemented only to be removed, it’s the threat of them that makes some buyers hesitate.
“If the U.S. looks to be an unreliable trading partner, either because super-high tariffs or variations in tariffs, it’s hard to plan for,” Atticks said.
The threat that countries that are top buyers would find new suppliers has some farmers scared. And while farmers can plan for certain variables, like drought or crop damage, tariffs make the equation more complex.
“When you’re going from potentially zero to 50 percent tariffs — or higher, as the threats were — that’s gonna impact what you’re selling or that’s going to impact what you’re buying,” Atticks said. “It’s just hard to budget for that.”
‘Not as significant’
O’Hara has heard some of the worries about general tariff implications at the co-op. But when he details the impact on co-op products, the concern has typically subsided.
“Not to say that it doesn’t impact them in other ways,” O’Hara said. “But through the dealings that they have here with us, it’s not as significant as they may have previously thought.”
While exports create revenue, imports that aid their operations are just as important. Many growers import fertilizer compounds, such as potash from Canada, and parts for farm equipment.
On any farm, equipment failure is less an if than a when. Many components are manufactured in China before being imported to America. China has been the prime target in the ongoing trade war. (Though Trump announced a lower tariff rate against the country earlier in May, on Friday he accused China of violating their trade agreement.) But some farmers have seemingly yet to experience the increased cost, with parts still in stock at prices similar to pre-Liberation Day levels.
Gary Dell, a Carroll County farmer, recently picked up a pressure sensor for his John Deere tractor. It was made in China. If there was a price bump, it wasn’t noticeable.
“Parts are outrageously expensive anyway,” Dell, 56, said. “I don’t know that they’ve gotten more expensive because of the tariffs. If they have, I don’t know about it.”
Tariffs could also have an impact on crop exports to China. But the summer months are the leanest, specifically for bean exports. So even current crop exports to Trump’s chief trade antagonist haven’t left a definite mark on many.
“If you’re gonna have tariffs on China, this is the time of year to do it,” Dell said. “Then try to negotiate them out before our marketing year starts.”
‘It affects each and every American’
October to February typically sees the most exports to China.
That’s not to say the farmers, fertilizers, and co-op managers are unworried about the tariffs should they linger. The domino effect of tariffs starts small but can escalate. Not all buyers and sellers have the patience to employ a wait-and-see approach to the market. Those most fearful about the potential impact may abandon longtime customers and clients in favor of business with suppliers in countries with friendlier trade agreements.
“It really upends the markets,” Rep. April McClain Delaney, a Frederick County Democrat, told The Sun earlier in May. “There’s so much economic uncertainty right now,” adding that tariffs tie into other factors that could indirectly impact farmers, like the dismantling of the United States Agency for International Development and potential changes to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program.
Burrier’s chief concern is that there won’t be a resolution before the corn harvest. With an increased crop this year across America, corn is expected to be in good supply. That could be a problem if other countries — specifically Mexico — shy away from buying it.
He hoped the tariffs would be resolved before that happens. “That’s a key market to preserve and to work to maybe even grow,” he added.
During Trump’s first administration, he implemented tariffs that disproportionately hit the agricultural industry. Revenue raised from tariffs was returned to the farmers who had been initially impacted. The new tariffs haven’t caused as large a ripple yet. But it’s hard to find someone who thinks that will remain the case should tariffs stay in place.
“I am a believer that eventually, without agreements, we will feel them,” Dell said. “It is a future concern, but I’m not losing my mind over it,” adding that he agrees with Trump’s concerns about trade deficits with other countries.
Some have already taken steps to alleviate potential higher costs in the future. Butler-Van Horn said she’s begun accepting products now that she doesn’t need yet — products that she would typically receive later in the year. And all say they would just like to see it resolved.
“This whole tariff thing just doesn’t affect agriculture,” Burrier said. “It affects each and every American when it comes to that.”
Have a news tip? Contact Ben Mause at bmause@baltsun.com or on X: @BenMause.
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