Grocers and food policy researchers are sounding alarms that looming federal food stamp cuts could gut store revenues, trigger layoffs and shutter local independent stores.
The changes to the federal food stamp program — officially called the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program or SNAP — could potentially cause about 3,800 SNAP state retailers to experience a downturn in the next few years and affect hundreds of thousands of Marylanders’ ability to afford groceries.
The program cuts passed in the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” grocers say, could cause their customers to lose their eligibility, limit their spending power and harm vulnerable communities. Supporters, however, said the law promotes work and program integrity.
In fiscal year 2025, Baltimore City had, on average, about 147,300 participants in SNAP, according to June 2025 Maryland Department of Human Services (DHS). About 693,5000 Marylanders, or 11% of the population on average, receive SNAP monthly.
In fiscal year 2027, Maryland’s share of administrative costs for SNAP will increase from 50% to 75%. In fiscal year 2028, the state will pay for SNAP benefits depending on its “error rate,” or how much it over- or underpaid on benefits in past years.
Pedro Silva is one of those grocers whose business could struggle when the new law starts being implemented. He opened Tex-Mex Corner Deli & Grocery three years ago in the Highlandtown neighborhood in Baltimore, where SNAP recipients can purchase food with their EBT card. Now, he worries that the incoming cuts will slash his profits because he estimates 30% of his sales are from SNAP.
The past few months have been tough, he said, due to fears of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrests in the neighborhood. If more of his sales go down when the changes to SNAP are implemented, Silva said, “We would close.”
“If SNAP benefits are reduced by 10 to 15%, Baltimore City will lose about $5 to 7 million in monthly economic activity, which will pose a significant risk to grocery stores, small food retailers, farmers markets, and food-related jobs,” Baltimore City Chief of Food Policy and Planning Taylor LaFave told The Baltimore Sun in an email.
In Baltimore, “$48 million is generated for the local food economy each month” because of SNAP, LaFave wrote. “Any reduction in SNAP spending will have a serious impact on independent grocers and corner stores, because often over 50% of their revenue comes from SNAP.”
The Congressional Budget Office and the state DHS predicted the following would occur under the new law:
- SNAP spending would be reduced by $287 billion over the next 10 years.
- The law expands SNAP work requirements to more groups, including older adults, parents of teens and veterans who have to work at least 80 hours a month or lose benefits.
- In fiscal 2027, Maryland will pay $172.5 million per year in administrative costs.
- In fiscal 2028, the state will have to cover $240 million per year in SNAP benefits due to the program’s 13.64% error rate.
- An estimated 3.2 million adults monthly nationwide could lose some or all of their SNAP benefits, including 1 million seniors.
- Immigrants and lawful permanent residents will be limited from participating in the program.
- An estimated 800,000 children aged 14 to 17 are at risk of losing food assistance.
- The federal deficit would be reduced by $22 billion between 2025-2034.
Maryland’s “brick and mortar shops,” like Silva’s store, would feel the greatest impact of the changes, said Cailey Locklair, president of the Maryland Retailers Alliance and Maryland Food Industry Council.
Local grocers already work with a low profit margin of 1% to 3%, Locklair said. If they see fewer consumers and money coming in, it would drastically affect their bottom line and their ability to stay open.
“It’s very, very alarming and very concerning for many retailers,” Locklair said.
Worst outcome is hunger
The changes also have large implications for local economies in the country, especially in low-income areas.
“If you decrease benefits, a significant portion of our population now has less spending power, so this has a direct impact on grocery stores and all of the supply chain industries associated with getting the food in the grocery store,” said Farah Khan, economist and fellow at the Brookings Institution Metro’s Center for Community Uplift, a liberal nonprofit think tank in Washington D.C.
SNAP has a multiplier effect on the economy because for every $1 spent on SNAP, it generates an estimated $1.50 in economic activity, with the majority of industries benefiting being trade, transportation, manufacturing and farms, Khan said.
While stores like Trader Joe’s and Whole Foods could weather the change better, local stores, especially in rural, high-poverty and food-insecure areas, depend disproportionately more on SNAP for spending in those communities, she said.
About 27,000 retailers nationwide, mostly found in rural areas with large shares of SNAP recipients, were identified to be most likely to be affected by changes, according to 2025 research by the Center for American Progress, a liberal think tank based in Washington, D.C.
In Maryland, Baltimore City, Dorchester and Somerset counties, almost a quarter of the population receives SNAP, according to the research. All three of the counties were identified as being high risk due to their low ratio of retailers per SNAP recipient.
Rural and urban communities that have a higher population of SNAP recipients typically struggle to attract and retain grocery stores, said Gina Plata-Nino, SNAP deputy director for the Food Research & Action Center, a Washington, D.C.-based nonprofit advocacy organization for food security.
With small businesses operating with thin margins and national retailers not seeing profitability in those communities, the closure of these stores that depend on beneficiaries will result in worsening food deserts, Plata-Nino said.
“The worst health outcome is hunger,” she said. “Health-related poverty costs the economy billions of dollars. And once these benefits are being cut, it puts a risk what these individuals may be able to access. And as municipalities, that is, counties and states, that have to pick up the tab. They’re not going to have the resources to do it.”
‘Slow downfall’
But not all agree with how the cuts will impact the country.
“Claims that the One Big Beautiful Bill will adversely affect SNAP recipients in Maryland are false,” said Anna Adamian, communications director for Maryland’s Republican U.S. Rep. Andy Harris, in a statement to The Baltimore Sun. “Congressman Harris believes taxpayer-funded benefits should encourage work, not replace it, and that Maryland should bear part of the costs if the state can’t get its act together to run the program properly,” she said.
However, Maryland’s Democratic senators disagreed that the changes implemented would benefit residents and businesses in the long run.
“When Republicans cut nutrition benefits for children, I kept thinking ‘How could you?’ I don’t know how they sleep at night knowing their constituents — children — will go to bed hungry because of these cuts,” Sen. Angela Alsobrooks said in a statement.
“These backward cuts will impact tens of thousands of Marylanders as well as our small businesses and local grocery stores, as families have to cut back even further and make tough decisions between trying to pay their bills and put food on the table,” Sen. Chris Van Hollen said in a statement.
Mercado Cinco de Mayo, a local grocery store in Highlandtown, could be another business struggling. The grocery store started accepting EBT cards from SNAP enrollees five months ago, said Manager Joselin Guzman, who worries the cuts could force her to increase prices. Most of her customers are SNAP beneficiaries who, in the past, used cash to pay for groceries, she said.
If business is still down because of ICE and SNAP cuts, she said, it could result in a “slow downfall,” and she would have to reduce her employees’ hours even more.
“If SNAP goes away, business goes away,” she said.
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