Baltimore Sun Orioles reporter Jacob Calvin Meyer will answer fan questions every Friday during baseball season. Here are JCM’s thoughts on several questions from readers:
(Editor’s note: Questions have been edited for length and clarity. Email jameyer@baltsun.com with questions for next Friday’s mailbag.)
Why hasn’t Dylan Beavers been promoted yet? — Brendan from Odenton
Your guess is as good as mine.
The Orioles have Jeremiah Jackson (an infielder) playing right field, and he’s made several defensive blunders, including dropping a routine fly ball. They also have Dylan Carlson as their everyday center fielder, and he’s hitless in his 26 at-bats since July 29.
Meanwhile, Beavers is mashing extra-base hits on a nightly basis with Triple-A Norfolk. In the past week alone, he’s had a four-walk game and back-to-back two-homer performances. In 87 games this season, he’s hitting .309 with a .961 OPS and nearly as many walks (62) as strikeouts (66). He’s also been getting better as the season’s progressed with a Samuel Basallo-esque 1.097 OPS and 9% home run rate.
Beavers, the Orioles’ second selection in the 2022 draft after Jackson Holliday, appears ready for a shot at the big leagues. The Orioles traded away outfielders Cedric Mullins and Ramón Laureano at the deadline. So what’s the deal?
Let’s give a hypothetical here, which involves Beavers being promoted, say, this weekend. That doesn’t appear likely, but let’s assume that for the hypothetical. If that happens, then waiting a week to promote him makes some sense. The atmosphere after the deadline was a chaotic one after six players were traded off the MLB roster — potentially not the best time for a youngster to debut. Additionally, three of the six starters the Orioles faced on their road trip versus the Cubs and Phillies were among the best left-handers in baseball — perhaps not the best matchups to have Beavers begin his MLB career.
Starting Friday, though, it will become more perplexing by the day that Beavers, who turns 24 on Monday, remains in the minor leagues. Some fans have wondered if maintaining rookie eligibility is playing a part in the organization’s decision — like it could be for Basallo — but that almost certainly isn’t the case for Beavers. If Basallo is a rookie next season and wins the American League Rookie of the Year Award, he would earn the Orioles a prospect promotion incentive (PPI) draft pick at the end of the first round. But that’s because he’s a consensus top 100 prospect, and the PPI rules stipulate only players on two of the three major top 100 lists are eligible. Beavers isn’t and has never been a top 100 prospect.
It is theoretically possible that Beavers could sneak into top 100 lists entering next season if he remains prospect eligible, but that’s unlikely given some players from the 2025 draft are slotted ahead of him and he’s not even ranked as a top five prospect on Baltimore’s farm, according to Baseball America.
This means the Orioles are likely waiting for other reasons. What those are remains unclear.
Zach Eflin was great in a small sample last year and has been bad this season. Could the same thing happen to Trevor Rogers? How real is what we’re seeing? — Jordan from Canton
It depends on your definition of “real.”
Will Rogers continue to record a 1.44 ERA for the remainder of his Orioles career? Obviously not. There is some regression coming here.
But there’s a lot to like under the hood when looking at Rogers’ underlying metrics that suggest he might just be a front-of-the-rotation starting pitcher now.
Rogers’ 22.8% strikeout rate is about league average, but he’s dominated thanks to his ability to limit walks, generate ground balls and avoid barrels. His FIP, xFIP and xERA through 10 starts this season are all basically the same as they were in 2021 when he was an All-Star with the Marlins.
For example, his FIP is 2.57 this season versus 2.55 in 2021. His xFIP and xERA are both in the mid-3s. (Some quick definitions here: FIP is an ERA-equivalent stat based on what the pitcher has most control over — walks, strikeouts and home runs. Expected FIP, or xFIP, is a version of FIP that uses projected home-run rate instead of actual home runs allowed, while expected ERA, or xERA, is a version of ERA based on the opponents’ quality of contact.)
How Orioles’ Trevor Rogers regained his confidence, velocity: ‘It’s in his DNA’
All that sabermetric mumbo-jumbo is meant to convey basically what our eyes are telling us: Rogers might not be *this* good, but he’s still really good.
The question for the front office this offseason is whether they plan for Rogers to be their No. 2 starter behind Kyle Bradish or if they want to add one or two other stud pitchers to slot ahead of Rogers. Given the amount of money coming off the payroll and the prospect depth the organization now has, the latter is attainable. An Orioles rotation with Rogers as their No. 3 or No. 4 starter would be a legitimate playoff-caliber group.
How would you grade the Orioles’ trade deadline? — Mark Z. from South Carolina
There are two ways to approach this question. The first is to assess the deadline in a vacuum, as if none of the context regarding how each team got to that time and place matters. That’s how The Athletic viewed it when they ruled the Orioles as one of their winners of the trade deadline, with Jim Bowden giving them a B-plus. That grade seems spot on if solely looking at the value they got back in the form of 16 prospects, including a haul from the Padres for Ryan O’Hearn and Ramón Laureano and a high-ceiling lottery ticket in 17-year-old Wilfri De La Cruz for middle reliever Andrew Kittredge.
The second way to view the Orioles’ deadline is with the context of how they got there included. When factoring in that the Orioles were coming off consecutive playoff appearances and were in the heart of their supposed World Series window, the fact that they had to sell at the deadline is catastrophic, no matter the value they received. That’s how CBS Sports’ Dayn Perry and Matt Snyder viewed it when they gave the Orioles an F at the deadline.
Both assessments can be true at the same time.
How much money did the Orioles save at the deadline? — Gerald W.
The nine major league players the Orioles traded away were due to be paid about $20 million the rest of the season. Baltimore traded away a combined $8.5 million in cash considerations to help finalize deals and secure better prospect returns, meaning the club saved about $11.5 million off the 2025 books.
Additionally, the club will neither be paying out the 2026 arbitration years for Baker and Urías, nor the club options for Kittredge and Laureano — a total of $22 million, or $33.5 million when adding the 2025 savings.
The Orioles entered the season with a $162 million payroll — up 76.9% over 2024 and a $100 million more than 2023. The question to track this offseason is whether the deadline savings will be reinvested back into payroll for the 2026 club.
Why did Elias trade Domínguez during the series against the Jays and not wait until it was over? It arguably cost the Orioles a game against Toronto. — Bob E.
That was almost certainly a feature, not a bug, of the trade.
The Orioles were selling because winning that game didn’t matter since they are out of playoff contention. The Jays needed bullpen help, and the immediate need might have helped push the trade across the finish line.
With the MLB trade deadline upon us, could you explain the actual steps on how a trade is implemented? Questions such as: 1. Is the agent notified first, then the player? 2. Do the Orioles have their own evaluation of the trading teams’ farm system or do they default to Baseball America’s list? — Dan H. from Elkton
These are great questions.
1. Every front office is different, but players are typically notified first. Some general managers will talk with players and/or agents about the possibility of being traded, but once they happen, players normally find out from the club. It isn’t uncommon, though, for players and especially agents to learn from the national news breakers like Jeff Passan or Ken Rosenthal.
2. Elias was actually asked this last Friday. “We look at the public rankings a little bit,” Elias said. “You just kind of keep an eye on it, but I think they sometimes lag what the front offices look at. But they’re a helpful tool.”
Have a news tip? Contact Jacob Calvin Meyer at jameyer@baltsun.com, 410-332-6200 and x.com/JCalvinMeyer.
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